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Five percent is where the rate story stops being background noise. If long-term interest rates breach that level decisively, the AI expansion is at genuine risk.
America's debt accumulation has reached a scale at which bond markets are beginning to demand higher compensation, and the current AI build-out sits directly in the path of what that repricing costs.
Where the constraint sits The mechanism runs through the cost of long-duration money. Long-term rates set the floor against which every capital-intensive investment is priced.
When that floor moves higher, the economics of forward-earning, infrastructure-heavy bets compress.
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