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The Bank for International Settlements has warned that enthusiasm for artificial intelligence investment may be outrunning the returns that investment actually generates, creating conditions for a sharp and extended pullback in tech funding that could spread stress into the wider global economy.
The BIS — the central bank for central banks — framed the risk not as an immediate crash but as a slow-building mismatch between capital committed and value delivered.
The Mechanics of the Warning The BIS concern follows a familiar capital-cycle pattern: money floods into a technology on the expectation of outsized returns; if those returns disappoint, funders pull back hard.
What distinguishes the AI cycle, in the BIS framing, is the scale of the bets already placed and the systemic exposure that scale creates.
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