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Prediction markets have a chronic structural weakness: without enough participants on both sides of a contract, prices drift from true probability and the platform's core value proposition collapses.
User volume is what holds that together. Kalshi says it added 3 million new accounts during the World Cup, driven by an ad campaign built around soccer players and a brand-display partnership tied to the tournament.
The thin-market problem The mechanism behind that constraint is worth spelling out. A prediction market prices outcomes by aggregating bets into a running probability.
When one side of a contract is thinly populated, a single large position can move the price materially, producing numbers that reflect that participant's conviction rather than the market's collective estimate.
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