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A four-percent oil price move reflects one straightforward market calculus: when a major power explicitly commits to keeping commercial shipping lanes open, crude reprices around that commitment.
Rubio said the United States will "continue to protect shipping" after strikes against Iran. The mechanism: why shipping threats reprice crude Commercial shipping access is the constraint oil trades on.
Disrupt the lanes, and supply projections shift before a single barrel is actually withheld.
government's stated purpose for the Iran campaign is to "degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping," which frames the operation as a supply-chain security mission. The market reads that framing directly.
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