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The crude oil market prices conflict risk through a single forward-looking mechanism: futures traders do not wait for a barrel to go missing.
They bid up the curve the moment a credible threat to regional supply or transit moves from theoretical to operational. That mechanism activated at full scale after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on U.S.
forces, sending oil prices up more than 7%. Why ballistic missiles change the risk calculus The choice of weapons matters to the market.
Ballistic missiles represent a direct military strike, a step up the escalation ladder that signals both capability and intent to absorb consequences. Iran's decision to deploy them against U.S.
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