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In midterm electoral cycles, the party holding the White House routinely loses congressional seats.
The mechanism is turnout contraction: the coalition that delivered a presidential victory shrinks when the ballot lacks a presidential name.
Republicans are directly targeting that constraint this week in Dallas, staging the first-ever GOP midterm convention at the American Airlines Center in hopes of replicating the base activation that brought them back to power two years ago.
President Donald Trump will deliver the keynote address Wednesday evening, with Vice President JD Vance headlining Thursday night.
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