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The maturity wall is a concentration event: leveraged buyout debt written in a single vintage comes due in a single window, removing the optionality that staggered maturities provide.
For private equity groups holding Covid-era software buyouts, that window is 2028, and the $40bn aggregate refinancing need arrives at a moment when artificial intelligence is rewriting the competitive assumptions those deals were built on.
Covid-era software buyouts were underwritten at low rates on expectations of durable, subscription-based revenue.
The logic was standard LBO logic: cheap debt supports the acquisition while cash flows grow into an exit multiple.
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