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The constraint in conflict resolution is the pause: both sides have to hold fire long enough for diplomacy to gain traction. That window closed Wednesday when Iran launched a surprise missile attack, triggering U.S.
strikes against Iran and collapsing a days-long cessation. The two sides are back in open conflict, with hopes of de-escalation gone.
The mechanics of the pause A halt in kinetic exchange is the precondition for de-escalation, not de-escalation itself. The days-long interval between the United States and Iran had made that outcome plausible.
The word "surprise" in the sourcing carries weight: an unexpected strike is the sharpest possible contradiction of a pause, because it signals that one side was not treating the window as mutual.
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