The constraint shaping U.S. military options in the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's capacity to reconstitute radar and anti-ship missile systems faster than a single degradation campaign can suppress them. U.S. Central Command has told the White House that periodic strikes may be necessary to keep dozens of oil tankers moving through the Gulf safely each day, according to three U.S. officials. President Trump has not approved the plan, but his statement Monday on Fox News that the U.S. will "hit them hard" came after Iran fired ballistic missiles at American bases in Jordan on Sunday.
The reconstitution problem
Over the past two months, CENTCOM gradually took control of most of the strait through a campaign to degrade Iranian military capabilities, a separate effort to clear mines, and an operation to guide commercial ships through the waterway. That combination limited Iran's ability to target oil tankers, allowed more traffic and oil exports to resume, and weakened Tehran's hold over the passage.
CENTCOM now says Iran is rebuilding. Officials briefed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine, and the White House on Iran's efforts to restore radar, air defense, and anti-ship missile capability in the strait. One incident that sharpened that assessment was the launch of an Iranian anti-aircraft missile toward a U.S. F-35 providing cover to ships. The missile was not a direct threat, one official said, but it was taken as a signal that Iran intends to rebuild its targeting accuracy.
The plan, developed over the past week, calls for strikes against Iranian radar and missile assets whenever they rebuild toward the capability threshold for accurate attacks on vessels. One official described the approach as "mowing the lawn." Hegseth backed it and sent the plan to the White House several days ago. Trump had not approved it ahead of the weekend's exchange of fire.
How the weekend changed the calculus
As of last week, the White House was leaning against approval, reluctant to expand the confrontation. Iran then launched ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan on Sunday, following an American strike on Iranian troops who had been preparing to launch rockets carrying mines into the strait. Trump told Fox News Monday that the U.S. will respond and "hit them hard." The White House declined to comment on the CENTCOM plan.