Michigan voters remain split between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers in the U.S. Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll released on Wednesday. Among likely voters, El-Sayed holds a one-point lead with 50% support compared to 49% for Rogers. The survey marks the first Fox News Poll of the season among likely voters, preventing direct comparison to previous data, though registered voters show a nearly identical preference of 51% for El-Sayed and 48% for Rogers. This represents a reversal from August, when Rogers led registered voters by four points, 51% to 47%.
The contest remains tight as concerns about both candidates weigh heavily on voter decisions. Roughly equal numbers of Michiganders are extremely concerned that Rogers is too close to President Donald Trump (39%) and that El-Sayed’s views are too liberal (36%). Favorable ratings also stand close, with 47% viewing El-Sayed positively and 44% viewing Rogers positively. Since August, El-Sayed’s positive rating among registered voters increased by five points while Rogers’ declined by four. Uncertainty persists, with 15% of likely voters saying they could switch their pick before voting, including 18% of Rogers’ supporters and 12% of El-Sayed’s.
Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, noted that short-term political forces favoring Democrats are offset by concerns about the Democratic candidate. He stated that El-Sayed has made progress shoring up Democratic support and has room to grow given voter concerns about the economy. El-Sayed leads among groups who traditionally vote Democratic, including women, Black voters, college graduates, voters under age 45, and union households. Rogers finds his strongest support among men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters, and Whites without a college degree.
Economic issues play a decisive role in voter preference. Four in ten Michiganders say they are falling behind financially and back El-Sayed by 25 points. However, nearly half of voters describe their families as holding steady and favor Rogers by 13 points, while those getting ahead prefer Rogers by 36 points. Seven in ten voters say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and they back El-Sayed by 13 points. El-Sayed also holds advantages among voters focused on U.S. policy toward Israel and AI technology. Conversely, Rogers is favored by 26 points among the 44% of voters focused on immigration.
Trump’s influence remains significant in the state. Half of Michigan voters consider Trump extremely important to their Senate vote and favor El-Sayed by 22 points. In the previous cycle, the president carried the state by a narrow margin under two points, while Rogers fell just short of Democrat Elissa Slotkin in his own race. Nearly six in ten disapprove of the president’s performance, a factor that drags on Rogers’ support. Despite this, Rogers retains support from 19% of Trump disapprovers overall. The poll was conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. The sample included 1,203 Michigan registered voters with a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points for registered voters and ±3 percentage points for the likely voter subsample.