A Fox News statewide survey finds Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson by two points among Iowa likely voters, 49% to 47%, a margin within the range of sampling error. Among registered voters, Turek’s lead widens to four points, 50% to 46%, a figure that has remained unchanged since June. The race is defined by economic pressures and partisan alignment, with both candidates performing close to their respective party ceilings in a state where 49% of voters prefer Democratic control of the Senate and 48% favor Republican control.
Party loyalty reveals a disparity in support. Democrats are more unified behind state representative Turek, with 96% backing him, compared to 87% of Republicans supporting current Congresswoman Hinson. Independents favor Turek by a two-to-one margin, while 10% of Republicans support the Democrat. This dynamic is constrained by Iowa’s partisan structure, which contains more self-identified Republicans than Democrats.
Economic conditions are a decisive factor in the contest. In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, three in 10 Iowans described their families as falling behind financially; that share has risen to four in 10 today. Voters in this category back Turek by a 38-point margin. Conversely, those reporting their finances are holding steady (45%) or getting ahead (13%) favor Hinson by 14 and 53 points, respectively. Six in 10 Iowa voters state that the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote decision, outpacing concerns about President Donald Trump (43%), immigration (39%), and AI technology (27%).
Demographic splits further illustrate the race’s tightness. Turek leads among women by 11 points, suburban voters by 16 points, college graduates by 17 points, and independents by 32 points. Hinson holds advantages among men (7 points), voters without a college degree (6 points), rural voters (14 points), and White evangelical Christians (41 points).
President Trump’s influence remains a significant variable. While Trump won Iowa with nearly 56% of the vote in 2024, current polling shows 57% of Iowa voters disapprove of his job performance as president, compared to 42% who approve. This disapproval impacts Hinson’s standing; 50% of voters view her unfavorably, including nearly four in 10 who are "strongly" unfavorable. In contrast, Turek holds net positive ratings, with 48% favorable and 40% unfavorable. A 52% majority of voters express concern that Hinson is too close to Trump, compared to 43% who worry Turek’s views are too liberal.
GOP pollster Daron Shaw, who works on the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, noted that while recent history and the state’s partisan makeup suggest Hinson can pull out a victory, warning signs are evident. Shaw stated that Iowa Republicans appear ambivalent, independents prefer Turek, and even Hinson supporters express uncertainty about their choice. Commitment levels reflect this hesitation: 88% of Turek’s backers are committed to their choice, compared to 77% for Hinson, and twice as many Hinson supporters say they might change their mind.
The poll was conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. It included interviews with 1,204 Iowa registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points for the subsample of 1,008 likely voters and ±2.5 percentage points for the registered voter sample.