A new Fox News poll finds Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49 percent each among likely voters in the race to replace Senator John Cornyn. The survey, released Wednesday, indicates the contest remains deadlocked despite Talarico leading by two points last month. The move to a tie shows Paxton gaining ground with conservatives, rural residents, suburban women, and those who supported Cornyn in the primary.
The poll highlights sharp demographic divides in the race. Talarico leads by wide margins among Black voters by 65 points, urban voters by 29 points, voters under age 30 by 28 points, and women with a college degree by 23 points. Paxton’s strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians, where he leads by 52 points, White men without a college degree by 32 points, rural voters by 21 points, and voters age 65 and older by 18 points.
Hispanic voters are a key bloc in the state’s political shift. After backing former President Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020, they favored Donald Trump by one point in 2024 according to the Texas Fox News Voter Analysis. In this poll, Hispanic voters favor Talarico by 30 points and prefer Democratic control of the U.S. Senate by 29 points.
Overall, Texans choose Republicans for Senate control by four points, up from one point in September. Talarico benefits from stronger party loyalty among Democrats, with 98 percent supporting him, compared to 90 percent of Republicans backing Paxton. However, nearly three in 10 non-MAGA Republicans cross party lines to support Talarico.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, stated the race will come down to whether disaffected Republicans show up and vote for a candidate with whom they have reservations. Talarico’s net favorability is positive by one point, while Paxton’s ratings are negative by 17 points. Among voters who view both candidates negatively, Paxton leads by 50 points.
Concerns about the candidates are nearly identical in intensity. Fifty-three percent worry Talarico’s positions are too liberal, while 50 percent are concerned Paxton is too close to Trump. Thirty-six percent are extremely concerned about Talarico, compared to 37 percent about Paxton.
In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott edges Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by five points. Abbott’s job approval is positive at 50 percent, and nearly all who approve of his job performance support him in the race. The poll was conducted October 15-19, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. It includes interviews with a sample of 2,011 Texas registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus two percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for the likely voter subsample.