House Majority PAC has reduced its ad spending in three Republican-leaning districts this week, a strategic shift that reflects the finite resources available to House Democrats at the end of the midterm cycle. According to AdImpact and a source familiar with the matter, the super PAC pulled back its investments in Tennessee's 5th, Florida's 7th, and Colorado's 3rd districts. This move comes as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and HMP struggle to keep pace with the fundraising of their Republican counterparts, who benefit from a network of cash-rich outside groups including President Donald Trump's MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk's America PAC.
In Tennessee's 5th District, HMP drew down ad reservations from nearly $1.6 million this month to just over $500,000 as of Monday. Democrats had previously favored Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, a star recruit, but redistricting made the district redder. Additionally, incumbent Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) lost his primary to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Trump carried the newly reconstituted district by 21 percentage points in 2024, and the Cook Political Report rates the race as "solidly Republican."
A similar reduction occurred in Florida's 7th District, where HMP halved its investment on Monday, cutting ad reservations from $3.9 million to $1.95 million. The Democratic candidate, Bale Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff and part of the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program, is facing Ryan Elijah, who defeated scandal-tarred Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) in the primary. While the Cook Political Report rates the race as "likely Republican," a poll released by the DCCC on Tuesday showed the two candidates tied at 45% each.
In Colorado's 3rd District, HMP also halved its investment, dropping from more than $2.1 million last week to less than $1.1 million as of Monday. Democrat Dwayne Romero, a real estate company CEO and Army veteran, is running against Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.), who took office last year after Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) abandoned the seat. Party operatives view Romero as lacking the momentum seen by Jessica Killin in the neighboring 5th District.
The PAC has also made partial cuts, or "shaves," in Arizona's 2nd District and Texas' 23rd District, both rated "likely Republican" by Cook. In Arizona's 2nd, Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) faces former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez, while in Texas' 23rd, right-wing YouTuber Brandon Herrera faces Democratic lawyer Katy Padilla Stout.
Conversely, HMP has pulled back spending in districts where Democrats are confident of victory or increasingly bullish about flipping seats. These include the races for Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.), both rated "likely Democratic" by Cook, as well as the districts of retiring Reps. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.). The funds from these cuts are being funneled into core battlegrounds, with HMP adding at least $4.7 million to its existing investments in nearly two dozen districts over the last two days.
Phil Gardner, a senior adviser for centrist group Blue Dog Action, criticized the Florida cuts, stating, "I'm not sure what HMP was thinking here." He noted that Blue Dog Action spent nearly $500,000 to help Dalton win his primary but has not yet invested in the general election. Gardner said he agrees with "95% of the decisions HMP's made this cycle," but called it "bonkers" that the PAC is dumping money into Maine's 2nd District while leaving Dalton without support in Florida.
In response, CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for HMP, told Axios that the group is focused on taking back the House.