The Israeli military initiated large-scale domestic exercises on Sunday to counter surprise border infiltrations and ground raids across northern and central Israel. The 48-hour maneuvers mobilize multiple divisions and air assets as the country approaches its October 27 elections. Israeli national security analyst Dr. Ehud Eilam warned that the drills risk triggering a dangerous miscalculation, citing the 1973 Yom Kippur War where Egypt and Syria used exercises to disguise preparations for a surprise attack.
The Israeli Defense Forces stated the operations include ground forces from the North, West Bank, and Central Commands, specifically the 210th, 98th, and 96th divisions, working in coordination with the Air Force. According to the IDF, the goal is to maintain force alertness, strengthen community defense, and utilize aerial capabilities for regional defense. On Friday, the military confirmed troops would practice scenarios involving surprise attacks and infiltration by air and land, incorporating lessons from the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks.
Dr. Eilam described the event as the largest exercise in recent years, aimed at protecting borders and ensuring the election day runs smoothly. He characterized the drills as a message to Iran and other regional actors not to provoke Israel during this sensitive period. The former Israeli Ministry of Defense researcher noted that while the exercises target non-state actors with or without Iranian support, they also serve as a deterrent against potential ground raids from Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan.
These maneuvers follow a show of force by Tehran days earlier, during which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired roughly 30 ballistic missiles across two distinct weapon classes. That live-fire display highlighted Iranian strike capabilities and prompted renewed alerts regarding commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the Israeli military heightened its alert level while maintaining readiness for a targeted strike against Iran.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir visited the Central Command on Wednesday to warn that escalation risks were growing. He stated that due to warnings across all fronts, the military had reinforced troop deployments in all sectors, including moving the 98th Division into the area to strengthen stability. Zamir emphasized the need for better operational control given the sensitivity of the current period.
Eilam pointed out that Iran’s recent missile launches were more intimidating to Israel than its own drills because they demonstrated active war preparations. He explained that the current Israeli exercise is specifically directed at Iran's proxies and allies on Israel's borders. The Sunday drill also followed an October 19 mission where Israeli fighter jets and aerial refueling tankers flew 800 miles across Syrian and Iraqi airspace to Iran’s border. Washington was notified in advance of that maneuver and viewed it as a non-kinetic show of force after a broader strike package was postponed earlier in the month.
Eilam warned that large-scale exercises carry inherent risks because troop movements can be mistaken for attack preparations. He compared the situation to Cold War dynamics between the Soviet Union and NATO, where major drills could be interpreted as prelude to conflict. In 1973, Israeli intelligence dismissed Egyptian and Syrian troop movements as routine, allowing for strategic surprise during the Yom Kippur attack. Eilam stated that Israel and Iran are now closely monitoring each other, with both sides suspecting the other might strike first by mistake.
He concluded that it remains uncertain whether an Israeli attack on Iran will occur because it depends on U.S. authorization. Currently, both sides are signaling readiness without an intent to start a war immediately.