Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican challenger Ken Paxton by two points in the U.S. Senate race in Texas, according to the first Fox News Poll among likely voters in the state. The margin of 51% to 49% falls within the survey's margin of sampling error, marking a photo finish as Election Day approaches.
Talarico’s advantage is driven by positive personal ratings and strong engagement among Democratic voters. He holds a net positive rating of 8 points, with 52% of likely voters viewing him favorably against 44% unfavorable. Paxton’s ratings are negative by 18 points, with only 40% favorable compared to 58% unfavorable. The enthusiasm gap between the parties is distinct: among Republicans, those identifying as MAGA are more likely to be extremely interested in the midterms and certain they will vote than non-MAGA Republicans. Conversely, two-thirds of both DSA and non-DSA Democrats are extremely interested, and nearly three-quarters of both groups are certain they will vote.
The poll reveals significant ideological divisions within the Republican base. Non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times as likely to support Talarico as their MAGA counterparts, with 22% backing the Democrat compared to 4%. This crossover mirrors lingering tensions from the competitive Republican primary, where 20% of likely voters who supported incumbent Senator John Cornyn in March now back Talarico. In contrast, support for Talarico is nearly unanimous among Democrats, with 100% of DSA Democrats and 98% of non-DSA Democrats supporting him.
Talarico also leads among key demographic groups, including Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%), and those under age 35 (62%). Paxton’s strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural residents (57%), and older voters ages 65 and over (55%). Voter concerns differ by candidate: 53% worry Talarico is too liberal, while 51% fear Paxton is too close to President Donald Trump.
Economic conditions heavily influence voter intent. Seven in ten Texans cite the cost of living as extremely important to their Senate vote. Voters who feel they are falling behind financially back Talarico by 32 points, while those getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points. Those holding steady, the largest group at 48%, narrowly support Paxton by three points. Talarico holds wide leads among voters who prioritize cost of living, artificial intelligence, and Trump-related issues, while immigration-focused voters favor Paxton by 20 points.
In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by five points, 52% to 47%. Abbott’s job approval rating mirrors his lead in the race, with 52% approving and 47% disapproving. Abbott performs better than Paxton among men, Republicans, and moderates, while women are more evenly divided. A notable crossover exists in this race as well: 10% of Talarico supporters back Abbott for governor, compared to just 3% of Paxton supporters backing Hinojosa.
The poll was conducted September 24-28, 2026, by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. It surveyed 1,203 Texas registered voters via landline, cellphone, and online text message. The margin of sampling error is ±2.5 percentage points for registered voters and ±3 percentage points for the subsample of 881 likely voters.