With the midterm elections three weeks away, polls in Texas and Michigan show Democratic candidates James Talarico and Abdul El-Sayed facing narrowing leads against their Republican opponents. Betting site Kalshi lists the odds of Democrats winning control of the Senate at 61%, a figure that may reflect optimism rather than current polling trends.
In Texas, state representative James Talarico is running against attorney general Ken Paxton. Talarico, a 37-year-old former state representative, recently spent nearly two weeks out of public view. He stated the absence was due to the flu, a period that fueled rumors among voters. Some polls indicate Talarico is barely leading Paxton, while a recent UMass Lowell/YouGov poll shows the race tied with 7% of voters undecided. Paxton’s campaign has highlighted Talarico’s past statements, including remarks about Christianity and his vote against bans on biological men in women’s sports. Talarico has also faced scrutiny for previous positions on meat consumption and gun control.
In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed is competing against incumbent Senator Gary Rogers. El-Sayed, who serves as a local county official, has faced questions about his medical credentials and shifting positions on healthcare. In 2020, he supported a version of Medicare for All that would eliminate private insurance. His current campaign materials state that Medicare for All would not ban additional private insurance through unions or employers. This reversal comes as El-Sayed seeks support from organized labor, which has significant membership in the state. Funding for such healthcare expansion remains a point of contention, with estimates suggesting high costs that could lead to tax increases.
El-Sayed’s campaign has also drawn attention to his personal history. He denied on Meet the Press having ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, a group designated as a terrorist organization by several countries. However, his half-sister, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago, previously stated on social media that her family had long been members of the group. El-Sayed also faced questions regarding dual citizenship with Egypt. He claimed in 2016 to hold dual citizenship and listed it on his academic resume, but he now denies this assertion. Additionally, during a recent debate, El-Sayed declined to answer whether he views Iran or Israel as a greater threat to the United States.
Polls in Michigan have tightened over the past two weeks, with several surveys showing El-Sayed leading by only one or two points. This margin falls within the range of error for most polls. The outcome in these two states could influence the overall balance of power in the Senate.