The United States is not prepared for the economic and military consequences of space warfare, according to aerospace analysts and former government officials. An outbreak of conflict in orbit would disrupt satellites essential for global financial transactions, maritime navigation, and U.S. military operations on Earth. This heavy reliance on space infrastructure makes these assets attractive targets for adversaries.
Todd Harrison, a space expert at the American Enterprise Institute, stated that the assumption adversaries would only target military satellites is no longer valid. He warned that in a future conflict, civilian and commercial space infrastructure could be attacked. Harrison noted that the U.S. public may not be ready for such disruptions, adding that there is no sanctuary in space, even in small conflicts.
China has developed satellites equipped with robotic arms capable of disabling U.S. equipment and lasers that can blind military space sensors. U.S. officials also fear Russia might deploy an orbital nuclear weapon, which could threaten all satellites and the space-enabled services the world depends on. Last month, U.S. officials revealed that the military possesses weapons in space, a disclosure they said was intended to deter adversaries.
Doug Loverro, a former top NASA and Pentagon space policy official, disputed the effectiveness of this deterrence. He argued that China and Russia have long assumed the U.S. held space weapons. Loverro added that if adversaries feel unable to gain an upper hand against the U.S. military in future wars, they may target infrastructure like GPS.
A March report by PwC and the Aerospace Industries Association warned that the U.S. space industry is running at peak demand but remains structurally fragile. The report indicated that U.S. space needs are outpacing equipment supplies. Additionally, RAND researchers stated that the nation likely lacks the skilled engineers required to rebuild space assets after a crisis. Aerospace analysts caution that the defense industry lacks the critical supplies and personnel necessary to fight back if China or Russia destroys U.S. satellites.
The United States currently operates more than 13,000 satellites, up from 670 a decade ago, according to the AEI Space Data Navigator. China operates more than 1,400 satellites, a number nearly equal to all non-U.S. NATO countries combined. However, analysts note these figures can be misleading as China and Russia work to close the gap by expanding launch cadence, growing orbital constellations, and developing anti-satellite prototypes.
Victoria Samson, chief director of space security and stability at the Secure World Foundation, concluded that while the U.S. may be ready to start a war in space, it is unclear if it is ready to finish one.