The constraint in any combat sports pricing model is ring time. Conor McGregor (22-6) has not competed in five years; Max Holloway (27-9) has logged eight fights over that span, including five title bouts. That accumulated octagon mileage is the mechanism the DraftKings line for UFC 329 has to account for, as of Saturday, July 11.
The McGregor-Holloway market and the activity gap
McGregor beat Holloway by unanimous decision in their only previous meeting, in 2013. The case for fading that history is straightforward. Holloway has lost two of his last three fights entering UFC 329, but his lone win in that stretch came over Dustin Poirier, who beat McGregor by TKO in each of their last two meetings. Holloway also averages more significant strikes landed per minute and absorbs fewer.
Combat sports markets pull differently than team sports books. Bettors tend to favor underdogs in UFC and boxing, which means favorites get bet down as event volume builds. The OutKick analysis recommends waiting until closer to the 11:15 p.m. ET Sunday start time before placing anything on McGregor, expecting the line to shift toward Holloway as Las Vegas foot traffic arrives.
Pimblett, Sandhagen, and the rest of the card
The Paddy Pimblett (23-4) against Saint Denis (17-3) line is worth watching. Pimblett ranks sixth in the lightweight division. His unanimous decision loss to Justin Gaethje in the interim lightweight title fight at UFC 324 looks different now: Gaethje went on to upset Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250 to unify the Lightweight Championship. Saint Denis is on a four-fight winning streak but carries three career octagon losses and has never gone the distance there. Pimblett has gone the distance in three of his last five.
At bantamweight, Cory Sandhagen (18-6) rematches Bautista (17-3), whom he submitted in the first round in 2019. Bautista has won nine of his last ten, but Umar Nurmagomedov beat him at UFC 321 in November 2025. Nurmagomedov is ranked second in the division. Four of Sandhagen's five octagon losses came against former or current bantamweight champions, and he has never been knocked out.
The flyweight bout pits Brandon Royval (17-9) against Kavanagh (10-1), a former five-time K-1 kickboxing champion. Royval has finished 20 of his 26 career fights by knockout or submission, and his title fight loss to Joshua Van at UFC 317 in December won Fight of the Year. The structural problem for Royval: his submission attempts leave him upright and exposed, where Kavanagh, installed as the -218 favorite, does his best work.