Policymakers at a joint panel in Bangkok have shifted from debating whether artificial intelligence will disrupt employment to recommending specific measures to cushion the impact. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described the AI-driven shift as a "slow-moving tsunami" hitting the global labor market, with young graduates facing the most immediate risk.
Georgieva noted that entry-level, routine jobs are disappearing, disrupting the traditional career path for new workers. "People to worry about, first and foremost, [are] young people that are coming into the labor market," she said, adding that the loss of these foundational roles means young people may no longer have viable professional futures in sectors like service industries.
Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who co-chairs the World Bank's Jobs Council, argued that emergency support measures used during the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis should become permanent structural policies. He emphasized that governments must work with the private sector to incentivize hiring fresh graduates, as demand for first jobs has declined. Shanmugaratnam pointed out that in the United States, demand for graduates has fallen for the first time in a century, and the wage premium for a college degree is shrinking.
World Bank President Ajay Banga highlighted the scale of the demographic challenge, estimating that 1.2 billion young people will turn 18 over the next 15 years. Since the private sector generates 75% to 85% of jobs in most countries, Banga stated that governments must facilitate private capital investment by building infrastructure and de-risking investments to absorb this workforce.
The IMF estimates that approximately 40% of jobs worldwide will eventually be augmented, downgraded, or eliminated due to AI. Exposure varies by region, with advanced economies facing about 60% exposure and low-income countries around 23%. Georgieva clarified that lower exposure in poorer nations is not a benefit but reflects their current distance from AI adoption.
Despite the job risks, AI remains a key driver of global economic growth this year. Georgieva stated that AI-related investments have helped keep global expansion near 3% despite energy supply shocks. She estimated that AI adoption could lift growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point in advanced Asia and 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point in emerging Asia, potentially offsetting losses from aging populations.
However, Shanmugaratnam cautioned that economic growth does not automatically translate to job creation. He observed that while China, India, and parts of Southeast Asia are growing well, job creation remains weak. He warned that AI could widen this divergence if policymakers are too passive. Shanmugaratnam added that displacement will occur task by task, providing a window for workers to adapt if universities shift toward applied training and on-the-job learning opportunities are available.