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In coercive air campaigns, the signaling logic only holds if the attacking party knows what it wants.
Centcom launched dozens of strikes against Iranian military infrastructure and small boats, and President Trump, asked whether he wanted a diplomatic agreement with Iran, said he was "not sure" while adding that more U.S.
military action could follow the same evening. The mechanism behind the signal problem Each strike in a coercive campaign is meant to impose a cost and move an adversary toward negotiation.
That logic requires the adversary to identify what concession would actually halt the pressure. Trump's public ambivalence about wanting a deal removes that clarity.
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