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After CPI cooled to 2.4% year-over-year — the softest read since early 2024 — the FOMC telegraphed a 25-basis-point cut at its June meeting, converting what the futures strip had treated as a coin-flip into a near-certainty.
What the data actually said A 2.4% handle on headline inflation gives the committee the cover it has been waiting for.
Core has been the stickier problem child, but with shelter and services components finally rolling over in the monthly prints, the disinflation narrative has enough sequential confirmation to hold up in the minutes.
For the SPX, that's the signal that matters: not the absolute rate level, but the Fed's revealed willingness to move. The dot plot as commitment device Two cuts were already baked into the 2026 consensus trade.
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