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Talarico Holds 2-Point Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Race

10/2/2026

Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican challenger Ken Paxton by two points in the U.S. Senate race in Texas, according to the first Fox News Poll among likely voters in the state.

The margin of 51% to 49% falls within the survey's margin of sampling error, marking a photo finish as Election Day approaches.

Talarico’s advantage is driven by positive personal ratings and strong engagement among Democratic voters.

He holds a net positive rating of 8 points, with 52% of likely voters viewing him favorably against 44% unfavorable. Paxton’s ratings are negative by 18 points, with only 40% favorable compared to 58% unfavorable.

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