Statcast data indicates that the fly ball hit by San Diego Padres first baseman Ty France in the ninth inning of Game 1 of the National League Division Series was not a home run, despite his post-game claims. The Milwaukee Brewers took the lead late in the game after Jackson Chourio and William Contreras both hit home runs, but the Padres remained in contention until the final out.
The controversy centered on a high fly ball hit by France that struck the roof support system at American Family Field before falling onto the warning track in left field, where Chourio caught it. Umpires ruled the ball in play, citing Major League Baseball ground rules for American Family Field which state that a batted ball striking the roof, trusses, or cabling over fair territory remains in play. If caught by a fielder, the batter is out and runners advance at their own risk. Replay review confirmed the on-field decision.
France argued in the clubhouse that the ball would have been a home run had it not hit the roof, criticizing the lack of technology to make a definitive call on whether the ball would have cleared the fence. He noted that the league possesses ball tracking, exit velocity, and projected distance data.
Statcast measurements provided specific metrics for France's hit: an exit velocity of 105.3 mph and a launch angle of 49 degrees. The projected distance for this batted ball was 325 feet. The shortest dimension of the left field wall at American Family Field is 342 feet directly at the foul pole, with greater distances toward left center. Statcast predicted an expected batting average of .050 for balls hit with these exact characteristics, meaning they result in outs 99.5% of the time.
Historical data from Statcast supports this conclusion. Among batted balls with identical velocity and launch angle recorded in 2024, 2025, and 2026, 14 of 15 were outs. The only exception was a double hit by Aaron Judge in 2024. The furthest distance recorded for a ball with these specific metrics was 337 feet, a fly ball hit by Cody Bellinger in April 2025. No ball with these exact characteristics has cleared the left field wall at American Family Field.
While France maintained he believed the ball was "going out" and thought his backspin would keep it fair, the data suggests otherwise. The article notes that weather conditions and backspin variables influence outcomes, but with precise measurements available, no comparable ball traveled far enough to clear the fence at American Family Field.